Sunday, March 27, 2011

The 2012 solar storms predictions! Solar storms in mid May and mid December 2012

It is well known from astronomers that the Sun rotates its sunspots every 27.2 days.

It was also recently discovered that the same core of sun spots stay from one cycle, to the next one. They might not be visible but the magnetic core is there, invisible, and they show themselves again, over the next solar cycle, in that same solar surface spots. This is not to say that new magnetic cores will form, and give origin to new sunspots. But roughly the same sunspots appear over and over again after 27.2 days.

I then checked when there were recently sunspots facing Earth, and geomagnetic storms:
For example:
9 to 14 January 2011
5 to 10 February 2011
4 to 9 March 2011

Going backwards this correlates with major solar storms in 31-.5 August 2010, or even back to 20 January 2005, very close to 15 July 2001 and 2 April 2001.
Only the major storm of 29-4 Nov 2003 does not fit in the cycle. Curiously appearing 14 days later, as if in the opposite side of the sun, to where most intense sunspots referred before formed.

Have you followed so far?

Extending the 27.2 day cycle into the future, we will get for example the following dates:
31 to 4 April 2011
28 to 2 May 2011
12 to 17 September 2011
9 to 14 October 2011
5 to 10 November 2011
20 to 25 March 2012
16 to 21 April 2012
13 to 18 May 2012
10 to 15 June 2012
7 to 12 July 2012
18 to 23 December 2012

Curiously, the 21/12/2012 Mayan date, appears right on the spot, as the solar maximum is predicted for 2012 and 2013. As usual, major solar storms will occur. How big no one knows.

It will be interesting to see if the solar sunspots and corresponding geomagnetic storms on Earth will fit this pattern!


I also discovered this possible cycle, about 7 months which fit with most solar storms on past 10 years:
April 2001 (X20) ...
July 2002 (X4) ...
October 2003 (X28) ...
January 2005 (X17)
nothing big happened afterwards until the current solar cycle 24
19 January 2010 (strongest solar flare in 2 years)
4 August 2010 ("solar tsunami" of 1st August)
15 February 2011 (X2)

The next big solar storms are likely come in:

12-17 September 2011 or 9-14 October 2011
16-21 Apr 2012 or 13-18 May 2012
21-26 Nov 2012 or 18-23 Dec 2012
23-28 July 2013

Again the Mayan date of 21/12/2012 appears right on the spot, of this 7 month major storm cycle. We know that the predictions are for a solar maximum in 2012 or 2013. The problem is that I am not sure what is the precise period of the 7 month cycle, it's something around 7 months (or 8 times 27.2 days, which is 217 days). However, you can add 27 days before or after to the dates above mentioned, to find other likely solar storm periods.

Also if we going backwards we will also find the June 1991 flares (X12) and March 1989 (Quebec power grid failure) on this cycle!


segurelha said...

Now, as of 24 August 2011, let's see if the predictions were correct.

Apparently, during the last months, activity was stronger in the dates pointed below, which is not in the forecast dates, but about 10 days later.
18th February
10th March G1 storm
12th April
5th June G2 storm
5th August G3 storm

This should mean, that the likely next large storm could be instead around 20-28 September 2011 or 17-25 October 2011.

Neha said...

The strongest geomagnetic storm in more than six years was forecast to hit Earth's magnetic field Jan. 24, and it could affect airline routes, power grids and satellites, the U.S. Space Weather Prediction Center said.

segurelha said...

I have seen now that not only a 27.2 days between sunspot activity (which is very well known to science) but also the 7x 27.2 days (or sometimes 6x or 8x) between larger solar storms. This is 190 days (7 x 27.2 days).

What is interesting is that some people have noticed a 188 or 189 day cycle between major earthquakes (just check the Indonesia, Chile and Japan earthquakes). I think we might be onto something here.

They foresee a major earthquake right around 22 March 2012 and 28 September 2012 (at least 7.5 magnitude earthquakes)

I was happy to point out the dates of 12 September and 24 October 2011 with possibly large actitity, as we have two cycle running every 27.2 days, space by around 10-14 days. These being the following:

2-7 Jan 2012 (and 17 Jan 2012)
28 Jan -2 Feb 2012 (14 Feb 2012)
24-29 Feb 2012 (and 10 March 2012)
20-25 March 2012 and (6 Apr 2012)

And most likely large activity around:
16-21 Apr 2012 (or 31 April 2012)
13-18 May 2012 (or 28 May 2012)

In fact, it is interesting that we already saw a X2 solar flare, in 27 January 2012, in the timeframe predicted above.

Perhaps a much larger X flare will occur aroud 16-21 April, 31 April, 13-18 May or 28 May 2012.

And as 22 March 2012 appears in both cycles, I think there will be something sun-related or earthquake-related on that date.

segurelha said...

These are the most important dates to look in 2012:

Earthquakes: 22 March and 28 Sept
Minor flares: 29 Feb and 25 March (+- 10 days)
Solar flares: 21 April and 18 May (+- 10 days)
Revolutions: 28 June (+- 20 days)
Wars: 24 November (+- 7 days)
Another event: 22 March (+- 12 days)